🔁 Market Rotation & Software Rebound

• Software may have been panic-dumped too aggressively this cycle. There will be losers, but the winners can still print monster gains, similar to what already happened in AI infrastructure and hardware. The catch: the market needs time to separate real winners from AI-disruption casualties. 1

• $IGV AI-disruption fear is fading fast. Three months later, the market no longer seems to care, similar to how the GLP-1 threat got over-discounted and then ignored. 2

• Market style is rotating. MLCC names — 6981 Murata, 6976 Taiyo Yuden, 009150 Samsung Electro-Mechanics — are getting attention, while “everything optical-related” has been weak from the start of the month until now. 3

🛒 Retail Technical Setup

• $COST is -13% from ATHs and sitting right at the 200dma. $WMT is -16% from ATHs, also sitting at the 200dma, with RSI lowest since April 7th 2025’s bottom. Both go on watchlist for a possible near-term oversold bounce next week. 4

🧲 Strategic Materials & Geopolitics

• MP Materials #MP is strategically critical for the West. The positive: it has started turning profitable. The caveat: this profitability is largely helped by the government price-floor agreement; stripping that out, the business is close to BREAK EVEN. The long-term direction looks right, but China can still use pricing pressure to cap MP. This is a must-win supply-chain path, but not a smooth one. 5

🇯🇵 Japan Equity Execution

• Buying real Japanese stocks through $IBKR by automatically borrowing JPY at a very low interest rate looks more cost-effective than using USD to buy ADRs. The trade-off is cleaner local-market exposure plus cheaper funding. 6

🤖 AI Hardware Product Strategy

• The AI pendant push looks questionable. OpenAI and Meta both appear to be moving toward a Humane-like form factor, but that category already looks failed. The core doubt: why a pendant at all? 7

📊 Growth Stock Valuation Discipline

• A stock trading at only 22x forward PE, near historical lows, while still growing EPS nearly 40% annually, is framed as a near “no-brainer” buy. The pushback is against short-termism: buying a quality compounding name does not mean it must immediately rip or double. 8