📉 Global Deleveraging & Equity Market Structure

• A-shares look like they had heavy stabilization-fund support over the past two days. The first and sharpest leg of global major-market deleveraging is likely ending, but the second leg will take time because May–June built up the largest, fastest, and most concentrated leverage in recent years. U.S. equities look structurally healthier than Korea and A-shares. Watch the U.S. next: downside exposes the weakest links, upside confirms the strongest tape. 1

• Korean equities look like a forced-deleveraging flush rather than a fundamental collapse. The key pressure came from overcrowded leveraged positions, especially leveraged ETFs. The worst liquidation phase may already be over as leverage cleanup has made real progress and the market starts moving back toward normal conditions. 2

🤖 AI / LLM Scaling & Trading Regime

• The LLM scaling-law bear case has weakened. Last year, gpt5, opus4, kimi k2, deepseek v3.1, and glm4.5 were mostly in the 400B to 2T parameter range and largely underwhelmed, keeping scaling-law doubts alive into early this year. Now closed-source SOTA models have moved to 10T, open-source labs have largely mastered training below 5T, and RSI / self-training is opening up. The next 12 months could be another step-change. 3

• AI trading flow increasingly looks like an Asia-session trade, not a U.S.-session trade. In the current tape, U.S. hours feel less decisive for AI beta. 4

• A 745B model update looks more like a 5.3 capability iteration than a new trillion-parameter architecture release; the true bigger jump would be 5.5. For tier-1 and tier-2 labs, the new bar is brutal: ship small versions monthly and major versions within a quarter, or fall behind the front pack. Great for users, brutal for labs. 5

🚗 Tesla / Connectivity Stack

• Tesla Cybercab matters because it embeds Starlink V5 low-Earth-orbit satellite broadband directly at the factory level. That turns high-speed satellite internet into part of the vehicle communications architecture, not just an add-on. The likely next step: high-end trims of other Tesla models offering built-in Starlink options, especially useful in U.S. areas with weak cellular coverage. 6

🥈 Commodities Sentiment

• Silver sentiment looks overheated on small rallies. When a 2–3% bounce instantly brings out $80–$100 price targets, that kind of euphoria usually argues the downside is not fully washed out. Another leg lower is still on the table. 7

🧠 Semiconductors / AI Hardware

• Hybrid bonding may be reserved for Feynman with custom HBM / cHBM, rather than rolling into conventional HBM4E first. That suggests the technology timeline has been pushed back for standard HBM4E and redirected toward a more specialized AI-accelerator architecture path. 8

🇨🇳 China Macro / Policy Logic

• China’s policy and trade behavior can be read through one blunt constraint: it needs hard currency. That need likely shapes how much room Beijing has in external flows, export strategy, and cross-border commercial decisions. 9