Original Insight Summary

🤖 AI Infrastructure & Compute Bottlenecks

• Moonshot AI limiting Kimi K3 subscriptions is a real demand signal, not a minor ops issue. The 2.8 trillion parameter model is already trained. The choke point has shifted to inference at scale: more accelerators, huge memory, and serving capacity. 1

• $CRWV showing measured $NVDA Vera Rubin NVL72 results at 10x more tokens per second per megawatt than Blackwell on DeepSeek-R1 points to Rubin’s efficiency gains holding up outside the slide deck. Real-world power efficiency is becoming the key battleground. 2

📈 AI / Memory Stock Setup

• Memory and AI names are at an inflection point. The key read: today could be the bottom, or just an oversold bounce before the next leg lower. Confirmation matters more than chasing the first green candle. 3

• Most AI stocks are still base-building, not broken. After huge runs, the past few months look more like digestion than distribution. Even after pullbacks, many remain meaningfully up over recent months. Zooming out keeps the trend in context. 4

💸 Dip-Buying & Trade Management

• Sharp pullbacks are still paying if bought at the right zones: $ASTS $56s > $64, $CRWV $74s > $80, and $NBIS added under $200 after a $281 trim. The playbook is capital deployment after panic flushes, with reported gains of +11.5% / +9.7% / +17.4%. Still down on $CRWV, but $NBIS, $ASTS, and others carried the trade. 5

• $AAOI bouncing from $90 > $120 reinforces the same tape read: dips into demand zones are where the asymmetric money is made. No need to chase strength when liquidation candles offer better entries. 6

• Profit-taking beats round-tripping. A partial add was sold at 975, leaving a 5% core position to run. The add from 820 made nearly 20% in less than a week. The lesson is simple: add into fear, don’t chase highs and puke lows. 7

🧭 Technical Setups

• $TSM has follow-through back over the 10ema. A move and hold over 425ish is the next trigger, with earnings already out of the way for the quarter. Cleaner setup now depends on price acceptance above that level. 8

• $HIMS is close to its first golden cross since January 2024. Last time that signal fired, the name performed well. Worth tracking as a momentum re-acceleration setup. 9

• $IREN is losing steam after a 33% trough-to-peak move in only a few days. Taking some profit is rational here. A reload zone around $37-38’s looks more attractive than chasing exhaustion. 10

• $EWY $174’s had a strong bounce, but is now approaching mini resistance at the purple line. The easy rebound trade may be over; next move needs a clean resistance reclaim. 11

🏦 Macro & Market Structure

• The market may have already priced in a tiny 25bps rate hike. After being teased with hike risk since the end of last year, the marginal shock value looks low unless the Fed delivers more than that. 12

• $SPCX has destroyed a staggering amount of market cap from ATH peak to current trough — roughly the equivalent of an entire $TSLA. That frames the drawdown as more than a normal pullback; it is a full-blown valuation reset. 13